With 29 more days to go before the May 9, 2016 national and local elections, the Boholano electorate expressed their voting preferences that would serve as a reality check for candidates vying for various national and local elective positions.
Based on the results of the Bohol Poll 2016 conducted on March 12 – April 4, 2016 all incumbent top officials of Bohol and Tagbilaran City running for reelection under the Liberal Party (LP) appears to be enjoying a comfortable margin over their opponents.
But according to political pundits, the LP in Bohol faces an uphill battle to boost the flagging popularity of its presidential standard bearer, former senator and Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Mar Roxas.
Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban (PDPLBN) presidential bet Rodrigo Duterte is now Bohol’s top presidential choice with a score of 41% against Roxas 27%.
But LP Vice presidential candidate Leni Robredo is in a three-way statistical logjam with a score of 28%, Francisco “Chiz” Escudero 25% and PDP-Laban Alan Peter Cayetano 24%.
Except for 2nd District Representative Aristotle “Aris” Aumentado who is running under the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), incumbent Governor Edgar Chatto, Vice Governor Concepcion Lim, Representatives of the three Congressional Districts, 1st District Rene Relampagos, 2nd District Aristotle Aumentado and 3rd District Arthur Yap are leading their political rivals by an average margin of 61%.
In Tagbilaran City, both incumbent Mayor John Geesnell “Baba” Yap and Vice Mayor Antonio “Toto” Veloso of the LP also holds an average sizable lead of 93% against their political opponents.
The results of the poll survey that included economic and social issues was released to the public by the Holy Name University (HNU) Center for Research and Publications on April 8, 2016 with a total sample size of 400 respondents (Boholano voters) for the entire province.
PROVINCIAL RUN
The overwhelming preference of the Boholanos for Governor is traditional front-runner, incumbent and 2nd term Governor Edgar Chatto with a score of 84% with Loay Mayor Rosemarie Imboy lagging behind with 10%, followed by Wenceslao Garcia and Operiano Gaudicos tied at 2% each and Kary Balagosa hanging on with 1%.
Chatto scored high in the 3rd District with a voter’s preference of 88%, is a top choice for urban voters at 87%, preferred by both genders with a score of 84% male and 85% female and favored by the 25-45 and above age bracket with an average score of 87%.
The match-up for the vice governor showed incumbent 2nd term Vice Governor Concepcion Lim with a comfortable score of 67% and incumbent Senior Board Member Dionisio Balite dropping back with 31%.
However, up for grabs is the 3rd District votes where both Lim and Balite hails from the town of Valencia with survey result giving Lim a score of 51% against Balite’s 47%.
CONGRESSIONAL CONTEST
For the 1st District, the awesome voters’ preference for congressman is incumbent and 2nd term Representative Rene Relampagos with 86% and Crescencio Alturas straggling at 7% and Joahna Initay bringing up the rear with 5%.
Relampagos topped the urban vote with a score of 92%, class ABC with 92%, a female choice with 90% and an stunning score of 100% for voters in the age bracket 35-44 and 99% for those in the 35-44 age bracket.
It was a lopsided score in the 2nd District with incumbent Congressman Aristotle Aumentado running roughshod over 2nd District Board Member Gerardo Garcia 83% against 16%.
Aumentado scored an average 84% in the urban, rural, class ABCDE groups and was the female favorite with 90%. The 1st term congressman who is the son of the late governor and 2nd district representative Erico Aumentado tallied 92% in the 18-24 age group and 86% in the 45 and above age brackets.
The expected battle royale between incumbent 3rd District Representative Arthur Yap and Conchita Delos Reyes turned into a rout with Yap scoring 73% against Delos Reyes who managed to score 26%.
The former Department of Agriculture Secretary during the Arroyo administration scored 100% in class ABC against 0% for De Los Reyes.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Boholanos, despite the massive assistance from the national government during the October 15, 2013 earthquake and the presence of then Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Mar Roxas in the quake stricken areas in the province, preferred Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte as their next president.
Voters preference in the Presidential derby: Duterte 41%, Roxas 27%, Poe 16%, Binay 14%, Santiago 2%, Mendoza 0.1% and Seneres 0%.
Tagbilaran City, 1st and 3rd district voters’ preference went to Duterte, urban and rural, class D and male voters’ preference also picked Duterte.
Duterte and Roxas were statistically tied in the class ABCE and the female votes while Duterte topped 18-44 age group.
The 2nd district is now shaping up to be the battleground for Duterte and Roxas, both statistically tied at 30% and 33% respectively while Binay is fast catching up with a score of 19%.
Considering that the 2nd district is the bailiwick of Aumentado who declared his support behind the Vice President, a tight race is expected for the three presidential candidates.
Grace Poe, the national survey leader did not farewell in Bohol coming in with a dismal 3rd with a voter’s preference score of 16% as compared with her vice presidential partymate Escudero who is in a statistical tie with Robredo and Cayetano.
10:50 AM (8 hours ago)
The latest Social Weather Station (SWS) Mobile Survey of March 30, 2016 showed new scores in the Presidential race: Poe 34%, Duterte 31%, Roxas17%, Binay 17%, and Santiago 1%.
For the vice presidential race, the SWS Mobile Survey of March 31, 2016 released the latest national scores: Escudero 31%, Marcos 26%, Robredo 25%, Cayetano 13%, Trillanes 3%, and Honasan 1%.
The political issues were announced during the public presentation by Maria Paz J. Espiritu, project Manager of the Bohol Poll 2016.
According to Espiritu, each district was allocated 100 respondents and Tagbilaran City was allocated a separate sample of 100 respondents. The margin of error for Bohol is +/-5%; Tagbilaran City, Districts 2 and 3 is +/-10 while District 1 is +/-7.
Bohol Poll is an annual monitoring activity on the sentiments of the Boholanos on social, economic and political issues of local and national concerns. Conducted in April of each year since 2000, pre-election surveys are special runs during election year, according to Espiritu. (Chito M. Visarra)