Disaster risk reduction management offices in different areas in Bohol have been on alert since September up to the first quarter of 2018 for the possible development of La Niña.
Based on the monitoring conditions and model forecasts, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) expects a “probability of about 65-70 percent that a weak La Niña will develop” this month “which may last through the first quarter of 2018”.
“PAGASA has been continuously monitoring the possible development of La Niña since September 2017.”
PAGASA explained that “La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific”.
PAGASA had also warned that three more typhoons may possibly enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the last six weeks of 2017.
While the possibility of a landfall in Bohol is remote, the province may not be spared from heavy rains that the typhoons may bring.
This is considering that there is 60-70 percent possibility that the typhoons would pass the Visayas area and northern Mindanao, according to PAGASA-Cebu.
PAGASA-Cebu also cited the historical data which shows a pattern of having an average of three typhoons entering PAR in the remaining weeks of the year.
Tropical Storm “Salome”, the 19th to enter PAR this year, had just left the country on Saturday.
A low pressure area (LPA) that PAGASA had monitored near the province of Palawan is also now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
This weather system will not affect any part of the country
On the other hand, while PAGASA calculated that the current northeast monsoon only affects the extreme Northern Luzon, heavy downpour is also experienced in Bohol from time to time, causing flooding in low-lying areas and those with poor drainage system.
PAGASA, however, issued an advisory that localized thunderstorms can cause possible isolated floodings or landslides due to heavy rains in Metro Manila and the rest of the country.
The rest of the country may also experience slight to moderate coastal waters conditions from light to moderate wind which direction is northeast to east.
There is no gale warning issued though, according to PAGASA.
PAGASA, however, monitored heavy rains with lighting in the Visayas area yesterday.
Among the flood-prone areas in Bohol are the towns of Loboc, Loay, Sevilla and Inabanga due to their proximity to large rivers.