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THE STORY BEHIND THE PULSE SURVEYS

THE STORY BEHIND THE PULSE SURVEYS

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THE STORY BEHIND THE PULSE SURVEYS

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THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2016 could be one of the most hotly-contested polls in recent memory. The fortunes and misfortunes of the candidates have so far  ebbed and flowed like the fickle tides of the Pacific Ocean.

What’s the story behind the Pulse Asia survey results from May 2015 to January 2016%. We can only try to explain.

Jan 2016      Dec 2015     Sept 2015     May ’15

GRACE POE                    30%                 21%             26%             30%

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JOJO BINAY                   23%                 30%              19%             22%

MAR ROXAS                   20%                  17%             20%             10%

RODY DUTERTE             20%                  23%             16%              15%

Senator  Grace Poe started out as a popular candidate after topping the most recent 2013 senate elections with 20 million votes and was  30%  preferred candidate on top  together with VP Jojo Binay ,who in years before that – was the “unbeatable” candidate (22%).

When the popular President Noy Aquino endorsed DILG secretary Mar Roxas as official LP ruling party candidate, his meager 10% in May zoomed to 20% in September. In September, both Poe and Binay’s numbers subsequently went down. Rody Duterte who was a “vague” candidate in those days was a lackluster 15% (May) and 16% (September).

There were two important political events in December 2015- Duterte filed his candidacy and the Comelec “disqualified” Poe on two counts. These twin events benefited Duterte which rose from 16% (September) to 23% (December) and Binay who ate  largely into Poe’s disqualification cases zoomed from 19% to 30% in December.

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Many Filipinos ,even the better educated ones, thought the Comelec disqualification of Poe was final and saw the lady senator’s numbers dropped from 26% to a low 21%, a third placer that time. Roxas’ numbers were also affected by Rody’s entry dropping his 20% upon Aquino’s endorsement to 17% in December.

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The sea change in the January numbers can be explained thus: the careless Duterte somehow shot himself on the foot by sacrilegious comments against Pope Francis and his derring-do statements hinting on short-cuts to crime solution and sexual liberality and saw his 23% in December deteriorate to 20% by January.

Meantime, Roxas’ steady “macho” stand -challenging the Davao Mayor to a slapping then a boxing match- somehow gave the rich boy a “his own man” image and increased his 17% to 20% in January.

Senator Grace Poe benefited from the Supreme Court position on her disqualification cases and the defense of the solicitor general ( government lawyer) of her  in the highest court; likewise the decision of Comelec to keep Poe’s name in the official ballot despite legal limbos. Thus Amazing Grace zoomed again on top from 21% to 30%.

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Binay whose son Junjun was booted and disbarred from office is also facing plunder charges of plunder upon recommendation of the senate Blue Ribbon Committee and his  report card plunged deeply from 30% in December to 23% in January.

What is most significant about the January poll results is that for the first time in almost a year every Filipino now has an opinion on who to vote for president among the five candidates including the floundering senator Miriam Santiago. 97% of voters already had a choice by January compared to only (85%) in December, (81%) in September and a low 77% in May 2015.

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Where is the battleground in terms of social classes?

Social Class     Percentage         Income per year   Monthly income

AB                       1%                     P1.851 Million +      P 154,000 +

C                         9%                     P 603K +                 P50K+

D                        60%                    P 191K +                 P 16K+

E                        30%                    P 162K +                 P   5K+

Note that the real fight is in the D (60%) and E (30%) market or  a total of 90% of the voting populace, Thus no matter how attractive a candidate is to the ABC so-called rich, intelligent market, it matters little. So in the January results, the winner Grace Poe controlled 32% of the D market (the biggest market) for first place and second in the E market (26%) behind Binay but who dropped 12 percentage points in January from 42% to 30% only.Significantly , Poe also topped the ABC market.

Grace lorded it over NCR and Luzon and was second to Roxas in the Visayas; almost half of Mindanao went to Duterte -showing where his strength really lies.

What are the coming stories in store for February?

For comments: email to dejarescobingo@yahoo.com or bohol-rd@mozcom.com

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