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Topic |  

Cartoon editorialFORMER DILG SECRETARY MAR ROXAS,  is leading the Visayas area Pulse Asia survey done last February (see Table second Editorial). The LP Grand Rally spearheaded by President Noynoy Aquino himself   here recently tried  to cement the perceived hold of the LP over Bohol as their bailiwick with a huge close to 800,000 registered voters. A  sweep of Bohol votes can be material to a national  victory.

Will Roxas_Robredo dominate the 2016 polls in Bohol?

Bohol is known to be unabashedly pro-administration, regardless of the party.

However, the 2016 presidential polls is significantly different from the 2010 polls. President Aquino enjoys the highest approval ratings for an outgoing president , barring none, including his mother – the democratic icon Cory Aquino. Today, PNoy is endorsing Roxas, the man who supposedly gave way for the former to run for president in 2010.


In 2010, the outgoing president Gloria Arroyo had a “negative” trust rating- a virtual millstone around the neck of administration bet Rep Gibo Teodoro, who landed a miserable fourth place.

In Bohol in 2010- even if then administration bet Governor Edgar Chatto won over LP’s actor Cesar Montano, it was the opposition LP Aquino-Roxas that won the Bohol polls in 2010.

There is a popular theory that in  a presidential poll, local political lieutenants and even voters exercise relative independence in their choice in voting  for national candidates(compared to local positions) because there is a risk their presidential candidate could lose and they be shunted away from patronage blessings after the election.

The assumption in this theory is that the winning presidential candidate will review the poll results and will distribute patronage largesse (projects) more to areas which supported his bid.

Butch Abad wears two hats today. He is still DBM secretary but is a high campaign manager of the LP. His  Thursday visit was media-shy as he was wearing his LP hat talking to mayors about the % chances of the Roxas-Robredo team in their respective bailiwicks.  Accordingly the results of that consultation would influence  where the “funds” will flow to areas – which overall can influence the direction of the voters’ choice.

Abad could not possibly use “government funds for projects” as they have claimed there is hardly any “lump sum” in the 2016 budget and the “line budget” should go to where it was appropriated for by Congress under the GAA. Besides, there is an election ban of projects immediately prior to election.


Meantime, the NPC (Nationalist People’s Coalition) , the second largest political party next to the LP , launched the bid  of senator Grace Poe soaring by declaring her as the official candidate of the NPC.


The NPC has 2,540 elected officials: 2 senators, 45 congressmen,  12 governors , 12 vice governors,  106 board members,  241 mayors and 249 governors. The NPC, of course, clarified about 90% of the NPCs will follow the party vote while 10% will not.

The 10% includes NPC 2nd district Rep. Aris Aumentado and NPC 3rd district Rep Art Yap.

Aumentado said all presidentiables presented their platforms before the NPC party. He said he intimated his preference to Roxas himself in the beginning due to the efforts of the former DTI chief under Arroyo to help his  departed old man Rico Aumentado, Roxas’ being a godfather of a sibling’s wedding and clan relations to Aster Caberte of the Regional DTI.


He said his failure to attend to a Bohol Roxas visit one time ( short notice, he claimed) was used by his local political enemies to discredit him in the eyes of Roxas.  Many attempts of his to meet with Roxas was aborted somehow  (sabotaged?) until he reportedly chance-met with UNA bet Jojo Binay during the wake of the bodyguard of Danao mayor Tom Gonzaga.

There an unprogrammed alliance was formed where a new BUO (Bohol United Opposition) is backing Binay for the presidency alongside governor bet May Imboy and 3rd district representative candidate Che Toribio de los Reyes, who bolted the PDB Duterte camp.


The political grapevine heralded the so-called “personal reconciliation ” between the Cajes clan (led by Ondoy) and the Aumentado  clan (led by Aris) late last year.While people do not see  any more  more direct political bouts between the two political clans, the LP recently chose Gerardo Garcia (NUP) to fight Aris, the acknowledged new political kingpin of the 2nd district.

On the other hand, Rep Art  Yap clarified that even last year -he had already  sought party permission to join a political coalition with some local LP leaders here  to protect his turf. He was granted permission and maintained his coalition alliance even after the NPC announcement for support to  Sen Poe.

Initial , unofficial surveys show Duterte and Roxas to be leading in Bohol although the new UNA-Binay Bohol coalition and the recent NPC endorsement for Poe may alter the equation somewhat.

This coming Tuesday the Supreme Court will decide on the disqualification cases vs Senator Grace . Political analysts had called this SC decision on Tuesday as the “game changer” that might foreshadow the rankings of the bets going down to the last two minutes, so to speak.

How will the 800,000 Boholano voters eventually vote in May 2016?

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BEFORE THE FATEFUL SC DECISION ON TUESDAY. rankings  in February show Senator Grace leading at 26%. Since the survey has a + and – 2 points margin of error, Poe is in statistical tie with VP Jojo Binay at 25%.  For the same reason, Binay, Duterte (21%) and Roxas(21%) are all in statistical tie – reasons Pulse Asia.

That February survey also has a 4% undecided ratio, a number which can change the final placings once they decide who to vote in May.  Just to see how close the race is : Binay lords over Metro Manila, Poe the whole of Luzon, Roxas the Visayas and Duterte takes Mindanao.


RP         NCR         LUZON          VISAYAS         MINDANAO


POE                26           23              33                   24                    15

BINAY            25            33              29                   20                    21

DUTERTE       21           23               10                  19                     45

ROXAS           21           11               19                   36                    15


Watch out for the next March polls survey.

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